Commentary: Taliban’s return in Afghanistan cements Southeast Asia extremist strategy of 'strategic patience'
SINGAPORE: The Taliban has an often used Afghan aphorism to describe its shocking take-over of Afghanistan: "Y'all have the watch, I have the time".
Then, a reminder of temporal foreign presence in Afghanistan, today that phrase echoes the vindication that perseverance in waiting for an opportune time to initiate a comeback can pay off.
Despite 20 years of occupation by The states and allied forces and their technological-military machine superiority, the Taliban's return was swift and decisive.
Perhaps it sensed a vacuum created past the US' capricious policies – with the rushed Doha peace understanding in 2020, the announced pull-out by September and the US desire to press on with withdrawal despite the Taliban's ratcheting up of noncombatant attacks and targeted assassinations to intimidate civil guild, highlighted by a United Nations report in February.
AL-QAEDA NETWORKS WILL BE STRENGTHENED
Afghanistan's return to the extremist fold could exist the watershed in what may be a global resurgence of transnational terrorism and radicalism.
Specifically, the Taliban's victory may have a ripple effect on Southeast Asia'southward security mural emanating from the safe havens it may provide Al-Qaeda and other like-minded terror and extremist groups with.
A UN Security Quango Report in 2022 had warned of Al-Qaeda's potential comeback if Afghanistan brutal to a resurgent Taliban.
Al-Qaeda members have acted every bit military machine and religious instructors for the Taliban. Through the years, their ties strengthened with inter-marriages and shared goals amidst a second generation of fighters.
Though driven underground since the Taliban's fall in 2001, Al-Qaeda sees Afghanistan as a disquisitional base of operations, with this human relationship probable more pronounced in the coming months.
RIPPLE Furnishings FOR EXTREMISM IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
This is a sobering properties for Southeast Asia where historical links of Southeast Asian extremist groups with Afghanistan and Al-Qaeda are giving way to rising fears of militant movements being reinvigorated with fresh support.
Amongst the 5,000 prisoners freed by the Taliban afterwards storming a US airbase facility concluding calendar week were seven Indonesia fighters who had join Islamic Land in Afghanistan.
They may now bring together ranks with groups in Afghanistan and accomplish dorsum to support and recruit through social media and encrypted messaging.
With the Taliban now armed with helicopters, drones and ammunition seized from the fleeing Afghan military, US officials accept expressed concerns this arsenal could observe its fashion elsewhere.
Afghanistan has a longtime psychological hold on Al-Qaeda aligned Jemaah Islamiyah, who had recruited and sent several batches to Afghanistan for preparation during the Soviet-Afghan War in the 1970s and 1980s.
Among them include Riduan Isamuddin alias Hambali, the mastermind behind a string of bombings and attempted attacks in Southeast Asia and the organisation's primal bespeak man to Al-Qaeda who facilitated Afghanistan training.
His formal arraignment by a Usa military commission in Guantanamo Bay on Aug xxx could spark a wave of retaliation past newly emboldened Indonesian extremists.
Abdurajak Janjalani, founder of the Abu Sayyaf group in the Philippines, likewise fought in the Soviet-Afghan war when Osama Bin Laden led the accuse.
These common combat experiences in Afghanistan have left an indelible mark and established them as an alumni network of Southeast Asian Afghan fighters.
PRAISED BY AL-QAEDA ALIGNED GROUPS
It comes as little surprise then that Al-Qaeda aligned groups take not shied away from expressing solidarity with the Taliban.
These links are likely solidified through both personal networks and institutional affinity given shared history and credo.
Jemaah Ansharu Syariah (JAS) through its spokesman, Abdul Rochim Ba'asyir, son of Abu Bakar Ba'asyir, co-founder of Jemaah Islamiyah, called on Muslims in Republic of indonesia to support this "momentous victory" of Afghanistan'south freedom from "a puppet government".
Abdul Rochim was a former media commission member nether Khalid Sheikh Mohamed, the operational planner for Al-Qaeda. He was among the first to upshot an official congratulatory statement to the Taliban.
MIXED REACTIONS BY ISLAMIC Land-ALIGNED GROUPS
Centinel'south research shows that Islamic State aligned groups in the region accept had mixed reactions, with some in the Philippines echoing calls for the groups in Mindanao to follow in its footsteps – highlighting that the Moro Islamic Liberation Forepart and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters could learn from the Taliban.
Meanwhile, Islamic State-aligned Indonesian supporters, who take witnessed the Islamic State's takeover of territories in Iraq and Syrian arab republic, prefer to take a wait-and-see approach to assess the Taliban'southward power to cement its hold and implement Shariah law to its fullest extent.
While the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, the Islamic Country and are all radical terrorist groups, they differ on some interpretations of doctrine and credo. These differences have caused disagreement and schisms.
The Islamic State critiques the Taliban for its focus on a national Afghan agenda as opposed to a global one, the Taliban's protection of Shi'a communities whom the Islamic State detests on ideological grounds, and there are ongoing clashes betwixt the Taliban with the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) – the Islamic Land branch with a presence in both Afghanistan and Islamic republic of pakistan.
REVIVAL OF A STRATEGY OF STRATEGIC PATIENCE
And yet, rather than financial, training or even war machine support, the strategic value of the Taliban'south victory lies in the example it has ready in playing the long game. COVID-19 restrictions on travel impede aspiring fighters from moving to Transitional islamic state of afghanistan in the immediate term.
In reconquering an entire land, the Taliban accomplished that which the Islamic State could not. In overturning the regime, it has encouraged extremists with hopes of establishing a caliphate some twenty-four hours by showing that enemies tin be beaten back with sufficient planning and patience.
Groups in the region may be emboldened by this new narrative of success, one that speaks of the advantage for perseverance despite a dire outlook, and some semblance of assurance of divine intervention culminating in victory over the enemy.
A graver claiming lies in whether any ideological convergence between the Taliban, Al-Qaeda and Islamic Country can spark new incarnations here. Alert of the global security fallout with the Taliban at the helm, the Un Security Council cess in 2022 also noted that the Taliban partnered with nearly "xx other regionally and globally focused groups" in Afghanistan.
Despite the failure of Islamic State groups to conquer Marawi in 2022 and the express issue recent bombings in Indonesia accept had in advancing their cause, the Taliban's win in Transitional islamic state of afghanistan can act as a new source of inspiration.
For Southeast Asia countries that have shored up counter-terrorism capabilities, the Taliban's win reminds us of the limitations of conventional military forcefulness in exterminating extremism.
The Taliban's takeover is a poignant reminder that the region must remain resolute in standing efforts to edgeless extremism and mitigate its effects.
At a time when the pandemic has wiped out some livelihoods and endangered near others, countries should also acquit in mind how extremist groups saw new openings when social support were strained like in the Asian financial crisis.
Dr Jolene Jerard is Executive Director at Centinel, a public safe and management consultancy business firm. She is also Offshoot Senior Fellow at the S Rajaratnam Schoolhouse of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.
(Tin can we accept conversations about race and variety and how do nosotros take on views of younger Singaporeans who may want a more open discussion? Experts discuss on CNA'south Middle of the Affair.)
Source: https://cnalifestyle.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/taliban-terrorism-al-qaeda-southeast-asia-277326
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